In order to give y‘all a comparison of the effectiveness of each
technical indicator, we’ve decided to backtest each of the indicators on
their own for the past 5 years.Backtesting involves retroactively
testing the parameters of the indicators against historical price
action. Youll learn more about this in your future studies. For now,
just take a look at the parameters we used for our backtest.To get more
news about WikiFX, you can visit wikifx news official website.
Using these parameters, we tested each of the technical indicators on its own on the daily time frame of EUR/USD over the past 5 years.
We are trading 1 lot (thats 100,000 units) at a time with no set stop losses or take profit points.
We simply cover and switch position once a new signal appears. This means if we initially had a long position when the indicator told us to sell, we would cover and establish a new short position. Also, we were assuming we were well capitalized (as suggested in our Leverage lesson) and started with a hypothetical balance of $100,000. Aside from the actual profit and loss of each strategy, we included total pips gained/lost and the max drawdown. Again, let us just remind you that we DO NOT SUGGEST trading forex without any stop losses. This is just for illustrative purposes only! Moving on, here are the results of our backtest.
Forex trading is similar. It is an art and as traders, we need to learn how to use and combine the tools at hand in order to come up with a system that works for us. This brings us to our next lesson: putting all these indicators together!
Forex is the largest financial market in the world, with the daily
trading volume being 5.3 trillion US dollars. It covers transactions of
all currencies in the world. There is no central exchange in the forex
market, all transactions are conducted independently by traders on the
MT4 system. And round-the-clock services are provided within 7 days in
the forex market. When trading in the time zone of a country ends, the
market may only open on the other side of the world. For example, Sydney
opens at 5:00 pm (EST); Tokyo opens at 7:00 pm (EST); London opens at
3:00 am (EST); and NewYork opens at 8:00 am (EST). The closing time of
the NewYork market coincides with the opening time of Sydney. Therefore,
transactions can be made at anytime.To get more news about WikiFX, you can visit wikifx news official website.
Forex transactions require a high execution speed, because transactions need to be done immediately. Traders can adjust their transactions with the change of the market. The quotations traders get are always based on the real-time market. In addition, traders only need to pay spread fee, due to the fierce competition in the market, which causes most brokers to offer fairly low spread.
A Futures contract is a kind of financial agreement between a buyer and a seller for delivering a commodity at a certain time in the future. And the buyer buys a futures contract, which means that he agrees to buy a commodity at a fixed price in the future, and the seller must sell it at the agreed price. The delivery date can be a week, a month, a quarter or even a year. Traders in the futures market can also trade in both directions.
Compared with the forex market, the futures market is much smaller, with an average daily trading volume of about $50 billion. Therefore, the liquidity of futures is much smaller than that of the forex market. Unlike forex, futures transactions must be conducted in trading centers. CME, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, has the most traded futures contracts. In addition, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) and European Futures Exchange (Eurex) are also exchanged with a large trading volume.
The delivery price of futures trading is uncertain. Futures trading usually does not take place immediately, so it is difficult for traders to know exactly how many goods they can buy or sell.
In the futures market, investors need to pay spread fees, commission fees, settlement and exchange fees. These fees can accumulate quickly and will consume traders profits eventually.
WikiFX suggestions: If you are preferring simple trading, it is more appropriate to choose forex than futures. The forex market has high liquidity and its openness to retail traders can provide a fairly good investment environment. The retail traders of futures account for relatively few, and its high risk makes the futures market more suitable for investors with certain trading experience. Whether you decide to trade forex or futures in the end, the most important thing is to make a trading plan, strictly follow the principles, and stick to it.
On July 14, members of OPEC+‘s production oversight group known as the Ministerial Monitoring Committee, will be holding a conference call. The meeting will revolve around discussing and assessing each cartel members’ adherence to the recently agreed-upon supply cuts. Political friction there could unnerve traders and pressure crude oil prices.To get more news about WikiFX, you can visit wikifx news official website.
The following day, OPEC+ will be convening to discuss whether or not to extend record-production cuts into August at 9.6 million barrels per day or the original plan of 7.7 million bpd. In either case, a lack of coordination and signs of internal discontent – like what had occurred at the OPEC meeting March – could catalyze higher-than-usual price swings in Brent.
Countries like Iraq, Nigeria and Angola, who failed to meet supply cut quotas in May, are causing a stir an internal political deliberations among other members who are demanding a stricter enforcement mechanism. As a way to compensate overproduction, Angola has offered to cut production even deeper in the fall, but sources indicate that this has failed to placate the angst of its peers.
Euro Eyes EU Leaders Summit
Between July 17-18, leaders of the 27 EU member states will convene to discuss a EUR750b aid package to help restore economic activity in the virus-hit bloc. The funds would be allocated to the countries and sectors hit hardest by the Covid-19 pandemic and would come in the form of grants – EUR500b – and loans – EUR250b.
However, this major policy initiative has also widened the rift between the traditionally more fiscally-conservative North and their Southern counterparts. Members of the former want to reduce the amount of aid distributed through grants, while the latter prefers less of it in the forms of loans. Mediterranean states like Italy still have a bitter taste in their mouths from the Greek debt crisis and the austerity measures that followed.
Failure to reach consensus could see sovereign bond yields on comparatively riskier debt – like Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain – rise at the expense of the Euro and regional equity indices. At a time of great division, the politically-sensitive Euro needs now more than ever signs of unity, stability and coordination. Doubt there could cause it to plunge against the anti-risk Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and haven-linked US Dollar.
This week, a cascade of earnings data will be sweeping across markets, potentially creating an environment of high volatility. Some note-worthy firms that will be releasing quarterly earnings data this week include Blackrock, Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo. Large-cap technology stocks in particular have prospered amid the pandemic, though the party may have left smaller-cap peers out in the cold.
Since the selloff in March, North American global equity markets have experienced a double-digit bounce and has resulted in elevated stock prices. Earnings data may therefore be a rude awakening if the reports give investors a feeling that asset valuations are overinflated. A risk-off tilt may then ensue if traders liquidate their positions across the world and subsequently push cycle-sensitive assets like AUD and crude oil lower
With a rally for a third consecutive week, gold price rose to 1,779.24
USD last week, approaching 8-year record high, as global stock markets
fluctuated variously due to the worsening of COVID-19 with over 10
million confirmed cases in the world. In addition, geopolitical tensions
in some regions also contribute to the upward trend of gold price.
However, USD is favoured by investors because of an increasing risk
aversion. So the strong USD might weaken the upward trend of gold.To get
more news about WikiFX, you can visit wikifx news official website.
Gold is expected to keep rallying due to the factors above. Notably, gold‘s resistance level is at 1,788 USD, and the resistance level of gold extended wave is at 1,802 USD. At the same time, we cannot rule out the possibility that gold price would first challenge one of the two resistance level above, and then drop sharply. Especially when USD soars due to a nasty tumble of US stock, gold would be under more pressure to drop. It is worth noting that gold’s key level is at 1,745 USD. If gold fails to hold up the level, it will plummet.
In terms of WTI futures, it has the opposite trend of gold. Without the function of safe haven, oil prices are in a bad way because of a worse situation of COVID-19 and falling stock. WTI futures‘ reached the resistance level of 41.60 USD last week, and then dropped back to 37.09 USD. And WTI futures are likely to break the level of 37.09 USD, and further to approach the key level of 34.37 USD. The global stocks’ greater pressure to drop and the recent sharp rally of oil price may have a big chance to bolster the reproduction of US Shale and the significant increase of crude oil supply. Therefore, WTI futures are possibly to challenge another major support level of 30.72 USD. And it is estimated that oil prices will fluctuate horizontally in the range of 41.60-30.72.
The US dollar is trading in the red again as the USDX is very heavy and
it could drop deeper in the short term. Technically, the index is under
massive selling pressure, so a further drop will push EUR/USD and the
GBP/USD higher.To get more news about WikiFX, you can visit wikifx news official website.
USD was punished again by the United States figures, the PPI has decreased by 0.2%, even if the specialists have expected to increase by 0.4%, while the Core PPI has dropped by 0.3%, versus 0.1% drop in May, the market has expected to see a 0.1% growth in June. Unfortunately, the poor numbers have forced the greenback to lose significant ground versus its rivals.
The US Dollar Index has come back down to test and retest the 78.6% retracement level, a valid breakdown from this minor range between the 96.43 and the 97.74 levels could announce a further drop at least till the 96.00 psychological level.
As I‘ve said higher, a USDX’s further drop will push EUR/USD higher, we have a strong negative correlation between these two instruments. The pressure is high as long as the rate stays below the 61.8% (97.14) level and below the upper median line (UML).
Ive said in my previous analyses that only a valid breakout from this descending pitchfork, above the upper median line (UML) will really announce a USD major increase versus the other currencies.
The 96.00 level represents a critical support zone, a valid breakdown below this area will validate a further drop and the USD‘s major depreciation, while a false breakdown with great separation, reversal pattern, will suggest that the decline is finished and that the USDX will start another leg higher which will the dollar’s recovery.
Also, a rebound from the 78.6% (96.43) level could signal a bullish momentum because most likely the index will resume its sideways movement.
EUR/USD is traded at 1.1325 level and it seems determined to escape also from the minor range pattern. The price has decreased from 1.1370 Thursdays high and it has retested the upper median line (UML) of the descending pitchfork, a valid breakout above the 1.1348 will suggest buying again and it could validate a further upside movement.
The R1 (1.1404) is seen as static resistance, I believe that EUR/USD will ignore this obstacle if it will make a valid breakout above the 1.1348 level. The 1.1495 and the R2 (1.1574) could be used as near-term upside targets.
A further upwards movement will be invalidated only if the USDX will edge higher and if EUR/USD will drop below the 1.1200 again.GBP/USD has retested the broken upper median line (uml) of the minor descending pitchfork and now is pressuring the 1.2647 static resistance, a valid breakout above this level will signal a potential increase towards the median line (ML) of the major black ascending pitchfork again.
You can see that the pair has found strong support on the 50% Fibonacci line of the major ascending pitchfork, so technically, it is somehow expected to be attracted by the median line (ML) again.
GBP/USD has moved higher between the median line (ML) and the 50% Fibonacci line, so the outlook is still bullish. The price has failed to touch the median line (ml) of the minor descending pitchfork, so the rally towards the upper median line (uml) and towards the 1.2647 was expected.
A minor decrease could appear only if the GBP/USD will make a false breakout above the 1.2647. The 61.8% retracement level and the R1 (1.2725) are seen as strong resistance levels as well, a valid breakout above these levels will confirm a further rally at least till the median line (ML).
What's New In World Of Warcraft Classic Phase 2? At the beginning of
this month, Blizzard announced the updates of World of Warcraft Classic
at BlizzCon 2019, mainly presented in Phase 2 and bringing a series of
changes and new content for this retro game.To get more news about WoW Gold Classic Cheap, you can visit lootwowgold news official website.
On August 26, 2019, Blizzard released World of Warcraft Classic, bringing back a generation of game lovers to 2006 and evoking their memory. Meanwhile, the countless players gathered in Phase 1 to play the "old" game. Nearly two months later, Blizzard released Phase 2 on November 12, it is reported that World of Warcraft Classic is divided into six phases, which will be released in constant time. Except for the first two, it can't be known the detailed release dates until they are announced.With Phase 2, players can play it during a new PVP Honor system, along with world bosses Azuregos and Kazzak.
The players are waiting for it, since they want to get enough valuable rewards throughout the new system. This is determined by the players' level, and it takes a lot of time for investment, that being said, the rewards you can get are from the enemies the player kill. If you don't want to be defeated, it is best to fight with those enemies that are close to your level, then loot rewards dropping from them.And the crazy World Bosses will become the biggest threat to players, who used to be one of these elements of WOW Classic, and they return this time. Azuregos is a fair big boss, and it rarely gets angry unless you bother it.
Never try to fight with it, the powerful blue dragon can easily kill you, all you have to do is get three pristine elk horns, then escape from the zone before being noticed by Azuregos.It is a pretty good platform for you to keep focus on the development of WOW Classic, because we are always collecting the details and represent about it on our site. Knowing that you want to play better, and you are just one of the millions of players, it is acknowledged that the demand for WOW Classic Gold will grow with the game's development, which could constantly strengthen your characters and defeat the powerful enemies.
Last week, Phase 2 just came to World of Warcraft Classic, introducing
a PVP Honor system and World Bosses, until now, there are still four
phases left to release in World of Warcraft Classic release plan.To get
more news about Buy WoW Gold Safe, you can visit lootwowgold news official website.
After that, a Community Manager announced that it would release a new event on December 10, World of Warcraft Classic Battlegrounds, which should be released with Phase 3 in early 2020 but it is a few weeks ahead of schedule due to the release of PVP Honor System.Take Alterac Valley and Warsong Gulch for example, the method to win Alterac Valley battleground is killing an elite boss, the Horde could break down the leader of the Stormpike Guard, Vanndar Stormpike, and the Alliance must go after the leader and elder of the Frostwolf Clan, Drek'thar.
And Warsong Gulch is an easy battleground, you only need to stealth to the opposing fortress, grab the enemy flag and take it back to your own base.Anyway, the quests among there battlegrounds are not very difficult to complete, and you could get some extra Honor along with bonus loot through completing the quests. World of Warcraft Classic is a worthwhile game, and it has attracted countless players to jump into since its first release. In such a game without complicated gameplay and high levels, if you don't want to fall behind others, buy WOW Classic Gold to enhance your character, which could make your game better.
A stop for some change led to a Macomb County man winning stacks of
cash playing the Michigan Lottery’s $2,000,000 Lucky 7’s scratch-off
instant game.Get more news about 菲律宾彩票包网公司,you can vist loto98.com
The 57-year-old man, who chose to remain anonymous, bought the winning ticket at the BP gas station, at 19440 East 10 Mile Road in Eastpointe, according to Lottery officials. “I stopped to put air in my wife’s truck tire and I needed some change for the machine,” said the lucky player. “I went in to get change and asked for a $10 Lucky 7’s ticket. The clerk handed me the $20 ticket by mistake. “He offered to exchange it for me, but something told me to keep it.
I am sure glad I did!” The player visited Lottery headquarters to claim the big prize. He chose to accept his prize as a one-time lump sum payment of about $1.3 million rather than annuity payments for the full amount. With his winnings, he said he plans to buy a new home and then save the rest.Players have won more than $54 million playing $2,000,000 the Lucky 7’s game, which launched in December 2019. Each $20 ticket offers players a chance to win prizes ranging from $20 up to $2 million.
More than $44 million in prizes remain, including two $2 million top prizes, eight $10,000 prizes, 19 $5,000 prizes, and 273 $2,000 prizes. In 2019, the Michigan Lottery says players won more than $1.2 billion playing instant games.Lottery instant games may be purchased at 10,500 retailers across the state.
Shanghai’s office market stands to benefit from strong appetite from foreign financial firms.To get more news about Shanghai finance news, you can visit shine news official website.
Financial institutions from around the globe moved to grab office spaces and expand their operations when the Chinese government announced last year it would ease restrictions on foreign involvement in the country’s financial system. Many are staying the course, according to Bloomberg. “Foreign financial tenants are undeterred by the outbreak. We haven’t really seen anyone winding back expansion plans like some other multinational companies,” said CBRE’s Fion Zhang.
They’ve scooped up prime office spaces. Bank of America expanded its footprint by 20 percent when it moved into the International Finance Center in the fourth quarter. Japanese brokerage Nomura Holdings has nearly doubled its footprint in anticipation of doubling its headcount in Shanghai by 2023. The influx of large foreign entities has helped bring in smaller firms too. Swiss firm EFG Bank AG for example signed a 120-square-meter lease late last year.
Strong demand is a relief for Shanghai developers and landlords. Among other things, a supply glut and China’s trade war with the United States last year pushed office vacancy rates to levels not seen since the last financial crisis. Vacancy rates in Shanghai are expected to hit 30 percent this year and rents to drop 6 percent, according to Colliers International.
Although property sales of China's largest developers have rebounded
since March as the economy gradually reopens, experts said it is too
early to gauge when the nation's housing market will fully recover from a
slowdown that started long before the pandemic lockdown.To get more
news about China property market 2020, you can visit shine news official website.
In March, the combined contracted sales of the 10 largest developers by assets that also disclose monthly operational data rose to 260.45 billion yuan, ending four straight months of decline, according to company statements. In April, the combined sales increased further to 296.53 billion yuan, up 8.9% from a year earlier, the first year-over-year rise in 2020. However, for the first four months of this year, combined contracted sales of top developers were still 4.03% less than a year earlier. The developers in this sample are China Evergrande Group, Country Garden Holdings Co. Ltd., China Vanke Co. Ltd.,
Sunac China Holdings Ltd., Longfor Group Holdings Ltd., Seazen Group Ltd., Guangzhou R&F Properties Co. Ltd., Greentown China Holdings Ltd., Cifi Holdings (Group) Co. Ltd. and Agile Group Holdings Ltd.The rebound [has] not [been] remarkable nor surprising," said Victor Cheung, CEO and executive director of Midland Holdings Ltd.'s China division. "Given the economic development was pulled off track by the COVID-19 pandemic, to tell whether or not the market has recovered, we have to wait for the sales figures in the second half of 2020." China's property market started cooling long before the world's first COVID-19 cases were reported in Hubei province toward the end of 2019 and then a nationwide lockdown for most of the first quarter of 2020. In recent years, Beijing has also been stepping up regulations to crack down on "speculative activities" in the housing market, while the nation's economy continued slowing amid the unwinding of financial risk and then U.S.-China trade tensions.
In 2019, the total area of commercial real estate sold — including homes, offices, hotel and retail space — fell 0.1% from a year earlier, compared to a year-over-year increase of 1.3% and 7.7% in 2018 and 2017, respectively, according to the National Bureau of Statistics of China. Now, as China's economy contracted for the first time on record in the first quarter, and many of its trading partners are reporting recessions, an uncertain global economic outlook will weigh on the export-reliant economy and its housing market, experts said. "Given both internal and external downward pressure brought by the stumbling global economy and slow economic recovery in Europe and the U.S., it is expected that the national gross floor area sold will be on par with that of 2019, with single-digit growth in property prices," Cheung said.
NPC International Inc., the largest franchisee of Pizza Hut
restaurants in the U.S., filed for bankruptcy after coronavirus-related
shutdowns added to competitive pressures in the restaurant industry.To
get more news about NPC, you can visit shine news official website.
The closely held company sought Chapter 11 protection in the Southern District of Texas court on Wednesday. NPC, founded in 1962, operates 1,227 Pizza Hut and 393 Wendy’s stores across the U.S., according to court papers. NPC and Pizza Hut have struggled with rising labor and food costs while trying to expand delivery and move away from traditional dine-in restaurants. The Overland Park, Kansas-based company also faces cut-throat competition from rivals such as Domino’s Pizza Inc. and Papa John’s International Inc.
The company has $903 million in debt and has pre-negotiated a restructuring agreement with about 90% of its first lien lenders and 17% of second lien lenders. The plan is aimed at reducing the company’s debt, with first lien lenders taking equity and potentially participating in a new cash injection. It also includes the sale of at least part of the company’s restaurants, according to the filing. The Chapter 11 filing doesn’t mean Pizza Hut and Wendy’s are going out of business. NPC can keep operating while it works out a plan to pay its bills and turn the business around, and the bankruptcy doesn’t affect the thousands of other Pizza Hut and Wendy’s outlets owned by other franchisees.
Under the deal with its lenders, NPC will start trying to sell its Wendy’s restaurants in the coming days. Meanwhile, the company has until July 24 to work out a deal with certain creditors and Pizza Hut itself on how to restructure NPC’s pizza business. If they can’t come to a deal, NPC will try to sell an unspecified number of its Pizza Hut restaurants, according to a restructuring outline filed with the court. “While NPC’s Chapter 11 filing was expected, we view it as an opportunity to create a better future for NPC’s Pizza Hut restaurants,” a Pizza Hut spokesperson said in an emailed statement. “We are working with NPC and its lenders to ensure that NPC’s Pizza Hut restaurants emerge from this process with the support they need to succeed.
” Ahead of the pandemic, NPC, backed by private investment firm Eldridge Industries LLC, brought in the help of restructuring advisers at law firm Weil Gotshal & Manges as well as investment bank Greenhill & Co. and operational adviser AlixPartners LLP, Bloomberg reported. Eldridge wrote off its equity investment in NPC last year. Restaurants are facing new pressures with the temporary closures of locations across the country to stem the spread of coronavirus. The drain on revenue has been too much for some, causing them to file for bankruptcy protection. Recent filings include CEC Entertainment Inc., the parent of Chuck E. Cheese and Peter Piper Pizza, and the U.S arm of Le Pain Quotidien. Greenwich, Connecticut-based Eldridge bought Le Pain Quotidien out of bankruptcy.
A number of analysts are highlighting fresh investor interest in the
implications of Joe Biden beating Donald Trump in November.To get more
news about WikiFX, you can visit wikifx news official website.
Conversations with clients have begun to slowly shift toward what a Democratic sweep may mean, Compass Points managing director for policy research Isaac Boltansky wrote in a note. Market participants will probably feel compelled to consider the policy implications at the end of this month or early August at the latest, as company earnings reports ebb and investors increasingly assess second-half 2020 themes, he said.
Boltansky also believes a Phase 4 government stimulus deal will be done by early August, and he flagged the beginning of the Democratic National Convention on Aug. 17 and the Republican National Convention on Aug. 24 as “the starting gun for the race to November 3.”
Separately, Vital Knowledge founder Adam Crisafulli said that one reason for the strong stock market on Monday might have been the sense that “Biden won‘t be that bad for markets.” The S&P 500 rose as much as 1.7% in morning trading, extending a five-day rally that’s the longest since mid-December.
“For the last several months investors watched Biden‘s rising poll momentum with trepidation, but now a narrative is emerging whereby he’s being painted as a neutral (and possible upside surprise) for stocks (as taxes wont rise by as much as feared while trade policy should be less disruptive and the volume of nonsense tweets will be substantially reduced),” Crisafulli wrote in a note.
Earlier, JPMorgan strategists including Dubravko Lakos-Bujas and Marko Kolanovic said Wall Street is too negative about a Biden win, as the Democrat is more market-friendly than analysts currently predict. They cited potential benefits from infrastructure spending, softer tariff rhetoric and higher wages, and they said the tax hit to S&P 500 earnings may be lower than many are expecting.
Read more: JPMorgan Says Wall Street Is Too Negative About a Biden Win
Also on Monday, Wedbush analyst Moshe Katri wrote that the U.S. elections were “likely the most important near-term regulatory event” for Visa Inc. and Mastercard Inc. Investors are already watching various outcomes, Katri said, and are viewing the Democrats controlling all three government branches as the worst case “scenario given past efforts to regulate interchange.” Visa rose as much 1.8% on Monday, while Mastercard climbed as much as 1.6%.
Thailand has been cited as a success story in containing the coronavirus
outbreak, having gone more than 40 days without any local transmission
of Covid-19. Yet its economic outlook is the darkest in Asia.To get more
news about WikiFX, you can visit wikifx news official website.
Gross domestic product is forecast to contract 8.1% this year, according to the Bank of Thailand. That‘s worse than official forecasts for any of the main economies across Asia, and would be Thailand’s biggest GDP decline ever, surpassing even its plunge during the Asian financial crisis two decades ago.
“Thailand has large exposure as a tourism hub, close to 15% of GDP, and it also has large exposure of the export-oriented sector,” said Kiatipong Ariyapruchya, senior economist for Thailand at the World Bank. “Hence the large shock to GDP.”
The state of emergency, nighttime curfew and business closings imposed across the country to fight the virus have crushed private consumption and investment, which were already on a modest downtrend last year. Purchases are expected to pick up as the lockdown restrictions are lifted and as government stimulus measures filter through to the economy, but investors could be slow to return given the gloomy prospects.
Thailand recorded no foreign tourist arrivals or receipts for a second straight month in May as the pandemic forced border closings. Annual tourist arrivals are forecast to drop to 8 million, just one-fifth of last years total.
Despite plans for travel bubbles with select countries, Thai authorities are proceeding to open the country slowly and carefully. Efforts to kindle domestic tourism won‘t offset the tremendous losses to this critical industry, which last year made up about one-fifth of Thailand’s economy.
At first glance, Thai exports appear to have held up relatively well this year, contracting for only two of the first five months of 2020.
As it turns out, distortions in one commodity have helped cushion the overall blow. Rising gold prices during the outbreak have led local investors to sell gold, boosting total exports. Excluding gold, total shipments have been hit hard by weak global demand and supply-chain disruptions.
Sources: Bank of Thailand, Bank for International Settlements data compiled by Bloomberg Economics
The Thai baht has gained almost 6% against the U.S. dollar in the past three months, the second-best performer in Asia tracked by Bloomberg. Despite the Bank of Thailand‘s three interest-rate cuts this year, which have brought the benchmark rate to a record low of 0.5%, the country’s success in containing the pandemic has kept the currency strong.
READ: THAILAND INSIGHT: BOTs Focus on Baht May Reduce QE Odds
The central bank has showed concern about the baht‘s strength, which hampers exports and will complicate the economic recovery. Officials have warned they’re considering additional steps to tame the baht if needed.
In Indonesia, locals can soon fly from Jakarta to the beaches of Bali
for a domestic vacation. Tokyo residents can escape the pandemic stress
with a hike up Mount Fuji, and New Yorkers can head to the Hamptons on
Long Island.To get more news about WikiFX, you can visit wikifx news official website.
Residents of Singapore, a city-state smaller than New York City, have few such options, presenting a massive problem for its battered tourism industry. With borders closed to foreigners, hotels and tourist attractions need to count on ‘staycationers’ to plug the gap in an industry that brought in almost $20 billion in revenue last year. Its a tall order.
“Unless we have a return to international business, the hotel industry is going to be decimated as up to 90% of our bookings come from international travelers,” said Michael Issenberg, chief executive officer of Accor SAs Asia Pacific unit, the largest hotel operator in Singapore.
While tourism everywhere has been hammered by the pandemic, the gradual opening of some domestic travel has given a shot in the arm to airlines and hotels in places like Australia and Vietnam. Rosewood Hotel Group has seen occupancy rates as high as 70% at some of its China properties as leisure travel picks up, said CEO Sonia Cheng.
Read more on Hong Kong staycations
Singapores tourism sector faces a tougher challenge, as the hotels were just given a green light last week to request approval to welcome domestic tourists. Many locals like teacher Najeer Yusof prefer to save their money and wait for travel to resume in nearby hotspots like Thailand and Malaysia rather than spend it on a hotel down the street.
“There‘s more to see and experience overseas at a cheaper cost,” said Yusof. There’s also the “awe factor -- getting to see or experience something I wont otherwise be able to in Singapore, like the mountains and national parks in Indonesia and activities like diving and surfing.”
Though the country of 5.7 million people has reopened its economy after a lockdown of more than two months, its borders are still largely closed. It recorded a historic low of just 750 foreign visitors in April, down from 1.6 million in the same month last year. May‘s numbers weren’t much better, at 880.
“In the short-term, hotels, eateries and attractions can re-orientate to draw interest to staycations, attractions or food discounts,” said Selena Ling, head of treasury research and strategy at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. “However, our inherent small domestic market size implies it may not be a longer-term sustainable solution.”
Tourism has been an increasingly important industry for Singapore, helping to diversify the economy from its traditional strengths of finance, oil refining and shipping. Attractions including the Marina Bay Sands hotel and casino, the Universal Studios theme park and the Singapore Zoo have drawn tourists from around the world.
Last year, Singapore hosted a record 19.1 million visitors, while tourism receipts rose to S$27.7 billion ($19.8 billion), from S$26.9 billion the year before. Singapore‘s tourism sector, which employs about 65,000 people, contributes about 4% to gross domestic product. The Singapore Tourism Board doesn’t track the share of local versus international tourism.
The border closure means Singapore needs to persuade locals to spend more money at home. Even with overseas travel off limits, Singapore residents will still want to venture out, said Tourism Board CEO Keith Tan.
“They may therefore be open to take time off in their own city and rediscover all that Singapore has to offer,” he said in an emailed statement.
Singapore has set aside S$90 million for the tourism sector and a task force is developing domestic and international recovery plans to be shared soon, Tan added.
Hotels including the Shangri-la are also getting a small boost from the thousands of Singaporeans and expats who had been traveling abroad and are slowly being allowed back in. When they arrive, most are being forced to quarantine for 14 days in a hotel, at a cost of about S$2,000.
With occupancy running at just 15% for August, the iconic Raffles Singapore is offering a two-night special for about S$795, complete with a complimentary Singapore Sling, free breakfast, city tour and spa discounts.
Some tourist spots are also offering price cuts to attract residents whove been cooped up in their apartments for weeks. Sentosa Development Corp., which manages a resort island with attractions including Madame Tussauds and Universal Studios, has waived admission fees until the end of September, said Lynette Ang, the chief marketing officer.
Malaysia is set to cut its benchmark interest rate to its lowest level
on record as it seeks to support the reopening economy amid soaring
unemployment and the threat of recession.To get more news about WikiFX, you can visit wikifx news official website.
The central bank will reduce its overnight policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.75%, the lowest in records dating back to 2004, according to the median estimate of 25 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Fourteen analysts predict a 25 basis point cut, while four expect the bank to ease by 50 basis points; the rest project no change.
A cut would mark Bank Negara Malaysias fourth policy easing this year, a period in which the economy has faced a triple whammy of coronavirus pandemic, low oil prices and political uncertainty. Unemployment surged 49% in April from a year earlier, to 778,800 people, exceeding the annual average in the last 30 years, as the government imposed a three-month lockdown to curb the virus.
Malaysia began gradually reopening the economy two months ago, with chief statistician Mohd Uzir Mahidin warning in May that the country was headed for a recession. The government has announced 295 billion ringgit ($68.9 billion) in stimulus to cushion the effects of the pandemic, and is drafting a bill of economic recovery measures.
Bank Negara Malaysia last updated its full-year forecast for gross domestic product in April, ranging from 0.5% growth to a 2% contraction. The central bank said in May the economy is expected to contract in the second quarter, before gradually improving in the second half of the year and recording positive growth in 2021.
Indicators point to the economy contracting in the three months through June: Exports plunged 25.5% in May, the most in 11 years, while industrial production shrank by a record 32% in April.
What Bloombergs economists say:
Though the worst has likely passed, we expect contractions to persist in 3Q and 4Q as well. Re-opening the economy will have its limits until a vaccine is widely available.
Tamara Mast Henderson, Asean economist
More recent data suggest a nascent recovery. Malaysias manufacturing sector returned to growth in June for the first time since December as factories restarted operations. The equity market rally suggests investors are positive about the gradual reopening of the economy, CGS-CIMB analysts Ivy Ng and Nagulan Ravi wrote in a research note.
Stimulus spending -- which includes 45 billion ringgit of direct fiscal injection -- has weighed on the governments balance sheet amid outlook downgrades from ratings agencies. The government expects the budget deficit to nearly double to 5.8%-6% of GDP this year, while total government debt could hit its statutory limit of 55% of GDP by year-end.
Bank Negara Malaysia pledged in May to “utilize its policy levers as appropriate” to aid the recovery. So far this year it has cut banks reserve ratio requirement by 100 basis points to 2%, and allowed them to count government bond holdings toward statutory reserve requirements. Those measures have released billions of ringgit worth of liquidity into the banking system.
The inflation rate has remained negative since March, with prices dropping by 2.9% for a second straight month in May, mainly due to lower transport costs on cheaper global oil.
“We expect inflation to remain in negative territory for much of the year, given still-weak commodity prices, as well as mild demand-pull inflation as the economy shifts into the new normal,” RHB analyst Ahmad Nazmi Idrus wrote in a research note. The central bank projects full-year inflation of -1.5% to 0.5%.